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Irish scientists to produce volcanic ash forecasts

Galway researchers will be able to predict plume density and dispersion By Angela Sammon - 12/05/10

NUI Galway researchers have developed Ireland’s own capability of Icelandic plume dispersion forecasting and assessment.

In a first for Ireland, and one of only a few in Europe, the forecasting system is expected to be one of the most sophisticated in Europe after further refinement over the coming weeks.

The four-day forecasts of plume density and dispersion are produced at least twice a day currently and over the next week will increase to six-day forecasts four-times daily (www.macehead.org).

Professor Colin O’Dowd, Director of the Centre for Climate & Air Pollution Studies at NUI Galway, which is behind this major development, stated: “The rapid development of the volcanic plume forecasting model to provide Ireland’s own capability of assessment and prediction is not only an excellent example of national collaboration and solidarity amongst key scientific partners in times of national need but also of innovation and a capacity for rapid response in a crisis.

“The combined skill of NUI Galway in atmospheric physics and air pollution research, Met Éireann in weather and climate research, and the Irish Centre for High End Computing (ICHEC) in computational science, was the perfect recipe for the rapid success,” he added.

While the initial aim is not to replace the official London Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre for aviation decisions, it certainly provides an additional informative tool for potential air travellers and allows them the capability of making more informed travel decisions based on additional information.